Reasonable Outrage

Here we go again.  Sound the sirens and whip everyone into a frenzy.  Then hope to get $.05 and the populace will think they saved $.45.

In car sales they will come out and  tell you that your $15,000 car is worth $2,000.  They actually want you to get mad.  They say, “Send them to the ceiling and then scrape them off.”  If you get $5,000, you are happy.

This is my favorite part, “Rep. John Dingell, who is marking his 52nd year in Congress…”  Never heard of him.  52 years and have never heard of him but this is his chance to make a mark.

• 50 cents a gallon tax on gas and jet fuel
• Phase out the interest tax deduction on home mortgages over 3000 sf (Rich Tax)

This is surprising coming from a Michigan guy who supported the auto industry for a while.  So either he has been covering for them for decades to get contributions and now realizes that he can be “honest” in his old age or Alzheimer’s has set in.

He says that the home deduction should be on large subruban houses because they create urban sprawl.  Land use rules create it plus a growing population.   Las Vegas has it’s sprawl due to a lack of land use rules which Porltand does have.  They have planned to take on Portland’s idea of a Urgan Growth Boundary.

I heard a year ago on the radio that 75% of wealth between 2000-2005 was created by housing. If you drop the deductions you hurt a piece of the economy. There is already a limit on income levels to interest deductions to be applied.

What happened after the Toyota Prius became popular?  Some areas talked of changing the taxing standard because they weren’t getting the gas taxes. On one side they gave tax deductions to those who bought but then realized they were missing it on the other side.

Oregon has talked about adding GPS into cars and taxing on mileage not gas.

What would happen if all of our advertisements and programs actually stopped smoking completely?  Around $13 Billion in tax revenues would be gone for all states combined and $8 Billion federally.

Raising the taxes after a threshold is reached will cause a reduction in taxes.  The gas tax would cause people to get more efficient cars just as it slowed smoking.  But eventually there would be a reduction after we got dependent on it. Plus the taxes will take money out of the economy and hurt the lowest earners the most as gas would be a larger percentage of their income.

See the above chart and go to this website to see how raising taxes counterintuitively lowers tax revenues once you reach a threshold.

This is a bad idea.  And I want someone to explain to me how we warmed up from the last couple of ice ages without SUV’s running around.  Maybe dinosaurs had more flatulence. Yeah that explains that.

When I was young my family went on a trip and we stayed at a motel that said it offered Continental Breakfast.  I felt like tomorrow morning was Christmas.  Continents are big and varied.  A whole room should be filled with tables of food.

Man was I pissed the next morning to see a small plate of donuts and coffee.  I DON’T DRINK COFFEE.  It was another disappointment that the world taught me about that day.  BS suggestions trying to make me think something was better than I would actually find it.  Anytime I see that now I am pissed.

Next Post, taxes

I realized in my early teens that I didn’t want to be hard of hearing like my grandfather when I was older. So I didn’t play my music loud. Asked my friends to lower their music while I silently chuckled that I would have great hearing when I was older.

Jump to now. Many of my friends are hard of hearing. I won. Not exactly. I was right but didn’t think it through completely. If they were going to have damaged ears in the future then what was I going to have to listen to when I was older?

So now they jack up the TV and talk loud etc. My ears have buzzed being around their loud parties. They love it and I rarely find anyone else who is annoyed by loud music at parties and at the theater. So my plan backfired. I should have just went along with them and it would have all worked out.

My only hope is that when the zombies take over I will at least hear them coming before my deaf ass friends.

I cannot stand people who don’t know how to drive and have no clue how bad they are.  So in the small hope they will find this blog here are some tips.

• A definition to help – Merging is the act of fitting in to moving traffic.  You have to fit in the with them!

• When merging, realize you are doing that before the ramp ends.  Stopping at the end is dangerous and stupid.  If you are that scared and feeble then walk.

• Try getting up to the speed limit before the ramp ends.

• Remember YOU are merging with traffic.

I have plenty of rants about driving.  I have been driving before I was legal age.  My Dad drove Long Haul Trucks for 14 years and trained other drivers.  I averaged 40,000 miles a year for 4 years straight and have been averaging 24,000 miles for the last five years.  So I have an opinion and some tips on what to do.  More rants for another day.

You see them all of the time and friends quote them and use them to sway an opinion.  But there is much truth in the saying, “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.”

In housing we have been hearing about the foreclosure rates rising in huge numbers. This is a 9 month old article from CNN, “The number of homeowners entering into some stage of the foreclosure process in December was 109,652, down 9 percent from November but up 35 percent from December 2005, according to RealtyTrac.”  They were  honest about the numbers even though the second percentage was still to sensationalize it.

They could have used any number and it would be factual.  But if they used the 9% drop in foreclosures it would paint a rosy view of things.  Obviously the 35% number by itself is amazingly scary. My assumption was that they put that to temper any expectations that housing is going well,or is it?

If you look at the numbers at the bottom of that article, there are some states that seem to be doing very well and some that are horrific.  In 2005, real estate was amazing for almost the entire country.   There was an article about a home that was sold 3 times in one year and each person made money.  So very few people will need to go through foreclosure.

If I go from selling one apple to selling five but only tell you my business increases 500% as a sales pitch, that is misleading.  Unfortunately a lot of number quoting is biased for the presenter.  Where percentages can be helpful they are often misleading.Two statistics from two different view points to make their argument but they are both valid.

“These tax cuts will only benefit the richest 1% in America.”

“The richest 1% pay 33% of the income taxes included.”

So please take the time to look behind the numbers before you judge the situation based on statistics, especially studies quoted on the news where they boil down a 10 year study to a 30 second sound byte.

         Tonight I watched a lady take her empty shopping cart to a empty parking space then pop up the front end so it would be up on the curb.  She did this apparently to be kind so the cart couldn’t roll across the parking lot.  How kind!

Now I hate it when people do that.  You think you see an empty spot, start to pull in and see an empty cart.  And the way all of the cars are parked there is no way to get the cart out between the cars if you squeeze in.  Two things really bothered me.

One was that a cart corral was virtually the same distance away.  She was so lazy that she didn’t even look around to see other options.  The second thing really annoyed me.

She ignored the fact that she left the majority of the cart sticking out into a handicap spot.  And it actually took a lot of effort for her to get it up on curb.  So she wants a handicap person, which I guess she was oblivious, to get out and move the cart to use the space.

Luckily within 10 seconds an employee picked up the cart.  I don’t get why people are inconsiderate and lazy.  She did have a glint of consideration by trying to anchor the cart but I am guessing that has to do with worrying about it drifting back into her car.

20/20 did a report on Dateline’s To Catch A Predator Series.  Already that has to be suspect as one news source reports on another.  Now to anyone who has seen these, you have to be impressed that they are catching so many people, even as the popularity spreads.  Even some of the guys showing up admit they have seen the show.

20/20 talked with some officers and a prosecuting attorney (or DA or other) from one of the cities.  Essentially the issue is that the sting was all about TV and not about catching the criminals.  In the state of Texas, just going to a residence after making a plan is enough.  So they said that everything else was staged.  Including the takedowns and how things were orchestrated.

Now I am glad they are being caught.  One thing that wasn’t answered though was how many times have the city has done these stings?  If they always do them then I guess sure, keep the cameras out.

But if they don’t often do these and NBC paid for the extra help then isn’t it a good thing?  A problem with having Perverted Justice run things is that the police don’t have proof that all transcripts are given to them unedited.  On top of that they say that the men in the homes are not being notified of their rights as they ofter pour out their souls about how they knew they shouldn’t do this.

An interesting fact to this is something I believe Hansen has said.  You would expect less men for each episode and even be surprised if you saw the same guy twice, which they did.  So obviously this isn’t a deterrent in complete terms as you see plenty of guys show up.

One place where I am surprised they don’t get into trouble legally is when the decoy prompts them to come inside when they are reluctant.  I guess this goes back to the crime is just driving over there and the rest is good TV.

The big issue that people against this grab onto is the fact that Louis Conradt killed himself while the police were trying to get him to come out from his home after failing to meet up at the decoy house.  Watching Dateline first it seemed reasonable.  Watching 20/20 it didn’t seem reasonable.  Going to Perverted-Justice I was reminded of their reasoning for going into the house.  They claim that some information was being deleted and he that he was getting rid of evidence.

In the 20/20 piece they had people saying that they could have just picked him up the next day.  True, but let’s say that he had met with a girl that night and something happened.  The police would have been at fault, right? So can they pick up anyone who talks online?  If so, it seems that fines should pay for the help needed to track these guys.

I guess I don’t have much sympathy for a child molester especially since it seems there is a high recidivism rate though this article show it another way. I believe it to be a fetish of sorts and those things seem to be to far ingrained.  I did not see where they proved he was with minors just that he had lots of porn at this point.

So in this case I am not sure where to stand on this one.  If NBC provided resources for this sting to happen then I am fine with how it went.  If NBC gets in the way, which I don’t believe is the case because if so, why invite them.  Obviously 20/20 isn’t going to try to stand up for Dateline but I think they missed obvious follow up questions.

And in the end, most or all of the guys caught in the sting were let go.  The DA had sent a letter to the police chief stating he thought it was a bad idea before they did.  He stood behind that and wouldn’t prosecute.  Even though they were all caught on tape.

Any thoughts on where to be reasonably outraged?

I was working on the computer when I came across a headline about the Hot Dog Eating Contest on ESPN.  I went to the TV to see when it was and found that it had 4 minutes left, and the American was ahead of World Record Holder Kobayashi.

I thought it was good that I missed all of the build up crap and would watch it to see who won.  But as the minutes ticked off and Joey Chestnut was ahead…and on pace for a world record.  With less than two minutes I was on the edge of my seat, and rooting for him.  As it ended and he beat the unbeatable Kobayashi I was…happy?  Weirdest thing.

What I don’t know if it was American pride or just that someone had beaten the champ when in previous years Kobayashi set a record every time and no one was ever close.  Either way, five minutes later it was like like I had made a bad drunken decision and couldn’t understand why I had done it.  Oh well.  I will probably watch next year.

We often get some latitude about not knowing something we are not supposed to do.  Cops can be forgiving when a new laws are introduced.  But speed through a work zone where there are tons of signs and don’t expect to get off with a warning.

It seems to be common wisdom that children and mentally impaired are immune from following the rules of religions.  It would seem that the greatest sin is not doing what you know is right.  Now for the most part I do the right thing in life.

But when it comes to taking care of myself I am not as good.  I know what I should eat.  I know how much sleep to get.  I know to stretch after working out.

Many years ago when I was in college my Dad gave me a cassette tape course on memory.  If I had done then what was in the course, I would have a fantastic memory.   I am annoyed at knowing what to do but can’t get myself to do it.  I don’t think I am lazy.

I got injured recently and started to feel my mortality if you will.  I had all of the resolve and perspective to make the correct decisions.  Since I got better I have almost gotten back to the old habits.  But according to this article I am not alone.  Essentially the article says that 9 out of 10 people when told to change their lifestyle or they would be dead, will still fall back to old habits.

I guess I bring this up as an excuse to me not running, changing my diet permanently, or any of the myriad of things I can do to live better or longer.  Against the article linked above, this one shows how someone can instantly change their life.

Obviously beating up on myself isn’t the answer or it would have solved things long ago.  I have some other ideas about it all but for now it is just a rant.

There are people, with the best of intentions, that do incredible harm.  This video sums up the idea.  Probably everything that will be posted on this site by me will have to do with people not taking a moment to think about their cause, information they were given, etc.

I remember Ted Danson came out in the early 90’s and said if we didn’t do something dramatic that the oceans would be destroyed in 10 years.  Now obviously that didn’t come to pass.  Does he lose credibility, yes.  Do causes that talk of tragedy get hurt as well sure.

The biggest couterpoint to the idea of global warming is the Time issue with a cover story on the coming Ice Age.  ( In the past it was easy to find the image of that cover.  I could not find it today.)

So now we are finding that the changes we make are not always better than what we were doing before.  Change is good but zealots are not.  In the 80’s, paper bags were the saving grace.  Oops, San Francisco and other cities are banning them.

We want things to be simple but they are not.  Building better homes to conserve heat ended up with homes that don’t get fresh air because it is sealed up too tight.  Longer lasting paint ended up with Lead and for some reason kids ate it.  Economical light cars had weak frames and higher death rates in accidents.

So when I read an article by Dr. Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace and chairman and chief scientist of Greenspirit Strategies Ltd. in Vancouver, I was excited to hear this from someone who I found to be reasonable in interviews.  He is no longer with Greenpeace as he has felt it went from it original vision into a political body with other motivations.

I had often wondered how cutting trees down was actually harmful as long as something was planted behind it. In most timber areas, they plant more than they take.  This is more for their future needs than altruism , but still it happens.  As I have always understood, anything growing consumes more than something not growing.  Fat middle-aged people versus skinny eat-anything teenagers.

Well that is what he said,”Berman, a veteran of the forestry protest movement, should by now have learned that young forests outperform old growth in carbon sequestration.

Although old trees contain huge amounts of carbon, their rate of sequestration has slowed to a near halt. A young tree, although it contains little fixed carbon, pulls CO2 from the atmosphere at a much faster rate.”

“To address climate change, we must use more wood, not less. Using wood sends a signal to the marketplace to grow more trees and to produce more wood. That means we can then use less concrete, steel and plastic — heavy carbon emitters through their production. Trees are the only abundant, biodegradable and renewable global resource”

And here is a quote to blow some people’s minds, “North Americans are the world’s largest per-capita wood consumers and yet our forests cover approximately the same area of land as they did 100 years ago. According to the United Nations, our forests have expanded nearly 100 million acres over the past decade.”

Too many people want to jump on something before they know enogh.  We will learn more as we go on. And truthfully, we can only make a decision based on what we know but it is our duty to find the best information before we make the decision, and then also be willing to adapt to new reasonable information.

And to Al Gore who said that the debate is over, he lied. And that simple lie cracks his credibility and causes people to double check if everyone agrees, and they don’t.

From an article on people exaggerating to get attention to a cause, “Many of the researchers behind the dire predictions concede that the scenarios are speculative. But they say their projections play a useful role in consciousness raising. ”What it does is serve notice on us; we need to be aware we’re tinkering with fundamentals, and there could be a range of consequences for human health,” says Anthony McMichael of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine”

Think and do a little research before you wave a sign or call for someone to be compared to Holocaust Deniers for not believing your cause.